Technology expert and Strategic News Service newsletter publisher Mark Anderson has revealed his top 10 predictions for 2013, which include the increasing dominance of tablet devices, the demise of Intel, internet-connected TVs, driverless cars and the rise of eBooks.
The newsletter, which is read by industry leaders including Microsoft’s Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, is described as “the most accurate predictive letter in computing and telecommunications, read by industry leaders worldwide”.
Anderson expects tablets, or ‘CarryAlongs’, to dominate global computer markets next year. “This category of pads and slates takes its rightful place as the largest market segment of computing devices,” he writes.
Anderson has also predicted that chip maker Intel, which currently provides Apple’s Mac processors, will become “increasingly irrelevant in the world of general computing”.
“CarryAlong and mobile chipmakers (led by Qualcomm and ARM) are the new William and Kate,” he adds, referring to the Duke and Dutchess of Cambridge. Recent reports have suggested that Apple is investigating ways to ditch Intel chips in future Macs and replace them with its own ARM chips like the ones in the iPhone and iPad.
The third prediction on Anderson’s list is that televisions will advance and become internet connected. Apple is rumoured to be working on a venture into the television industry, with an advanced set-top-box or perhaps even an Apple-branded television set.
Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a recent interview with NBC that TV is an area of “intense interest” for the company, because currently, when he watches television at home he feels “like I have gone backwards in time by 20 to 30 years”.
Anderson’s fourth prediction is that the fight between LTE and fibre will define the telecoms business-model battle for the coming decade.
“Customers choosing broadband LTE in DSL-served regions will be paying more and getting more; but those choosing LTE in fibre-served regions will be paying more for wireless broadband but getting less,” he writes.
According to Anderson, Google will become the next Apple in 2013.
“Facebook is tired and nosy, Apple is Steve-less, Microsoft is Microsoft, and Amazon is the only other game in town,” Anderson said. “Google’s efforts in email, video, smartphones, maps and driverless cars open up new long-term expansion paths, with more to follow.
“With all its many failures, the company has proven it can find and plough new turf,” he continued. “In terms of creativity, Google becomes the next Apple. Now it must learn about product support or risk losing it all to competitors.
“The driverless car becomes a serious and competitive global project, with multiple new states and countries passing laws to allows it, and major brands undertaking serious development of all the features that will one day lead to common acceptance,” Anderson predicts.
Earlier this year, Apple board member Mickey Drexler revealed that Steve Jobs had wanted to design an ‘iCar’.
Also on Anderson’s predictions list is the rise of eBooks. “Total eBook sales in dollars will beat adult paperback sales in 2013, wand their differential growth rates will exceed 30 percent as eBooks continue their ramp toward dominating the entire market.”
Enterprise IT could see a difficult year, Anderson adds. “2013 looks like another defensive year, except for the security segment, with no serious enterprise Windows 8 adoption and not much else going on. The screws are already tightened.”
The penultimate prediction in Anderson’s top 10 is that “hacktivist” efforts will acquire an important and permanent role in political transparency, “moving from the level of annoyance to becoming an important, long-term part of the international political and security landscape”.
Finally, Anderson thinks that supply chain security will become a major factor in global technology purchases.
“Starting with the high-security-risk offerings from Huawei, the feeling of cyber unease on the part of inventing nations grows, and has material effect on vendor market share among countries that can afford top prioritise their infrastructure security over short-term price advantage,” he explains.
“Recognition that today’s supply chains are virtually all compromised will lead to plant relocations and a new set of business opportunities for onshore component makers.”
Tim Cook revealed in two interviews published last week that Apple is planning to start manufacturing its Macs in the US from 2013, and said that he hopes it will encourage others to move their factories into the country.
So there you have Mark Anderson’s top 10 predictions for 2013. What do you think (or hope) next year will hold for Apple and technology? Let us know in the comments section below.