Writing for Bullish Cross, Andy Zaky explains why he thinks the Apple bears have it wrong when they think that Apple’s share price can’t grow any more.
Zaky focuses his attention on Doug Kass who recently wrote an article for The Street in which he predicted that due to a number of concerns Apple will no longer see such success on the stock market. Zaky points out that Kass doesn’t have a good track record when it comes to predicting the momentum of Apple stock.
Regarding Kass’s track record, Zaky notes: “After advising people not to buy Apple’s One-Trick iPhone Pony back in January 2007, he then advised people to avoid Apple in June 2009 when the stock was sitting at US$130 a share. On October 12, 2011, Doug Kass called Apple and Gold the most crowded trade of 2011 implying that investors should stay away. At the time Apple was trading near US$380 a share. The stock rose by about 70% just 6-months later. In February 2012 when Apple was sitting in the low US$500′s, Kass states that “Apple Euphoria Has Blinded Tech Investors.” The stock rallied another 25% after that comment. Everyone else is blind but Doug Kass it seems.”
Zaky lists the reasons why bears are concerned about Apple: “It is topping because there is doubt that the company will be able to innovate without Steve Jobs. Apple is topping because Tim Cook has fumbled with Maps. Apple is topping because the company’s brand is losing its luster. Apple is topping because its products are losing its wow factor. Apple is topping because it won’t be able to withstand headwinds as a result of a slowdown in the global macroeconomic environment…
“But these arguments are entirely meaningless. They have been and will continue to distract investors from that which is really important,” he adds.
“Apple’s stock price is dictated by technicals in the near-term and by its earnings growth in the long-term,” Zaky explains. He also says that to really understand Apple’s stock you need to be able to “comprehend the the size of the smartphone market.”
Zaky’s view of the Apple stock is more bullish. “I want everyone to understand that this article is intended only to get this on the record so that when Apple is trading at US$1,000 a share this time next year, I will be sure to re-publish the article as a gloat”
“Apple will not peak before it reaches US$2,000 a share. And that is a statement made with a complete understanding of the size and scope of the smartphone market, what that size will do for Apple’s earnings and the extremely cheap valuation that Apple would have to trade at in order to be at US$2000 a share. It’s going to US$2000 a share before the close of this decade,” he writes.