Apple could sell 1 billion iOS devices by 2015, analyst

Ashleigh Allsopp
22 September, 2012
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A new analysis forecasts that Apple is on track to sell one billion iOS devices by late 2014 or early 2015.

Asymco analyst Horace Dediu published the report, which uses the growth of iTunes accounts to project iOS device sales.

Apple revealed that it has 435 million active iTunes accounts at its iPhone 5 event, leading Dediu to calculate a growth of approximately 12 million new iTunes accounts being activated every month. This growth mirrors the growth in iOS device sales.

“Projecting the growth forward would imply one billion accounts in another two years,” Dediu concludes. “As iPhone and iPads growth increasingly converges with iTunes (of which there are 400 million units sold), the same frame time could apply to iOS cumulative sales.”

This indicates that Apple could see a total of one billion iOS devices sold by the end of 2014 or early 2015.

Dediu himself admits that it’s “not a very precise forecast,” but the record iPhone 5 pre-order rate of 2 million within 24 hours suggests that demand for iOS devices is still on the rise. Plus, future devices such as the rumoured iPad mini could also add to the accelerating sales figures.

A seperate analysis from Global Equities Research predicts that Google is set to grow alongside Apple, and that the two tech giants will capture 98 per cent of mobile device sales by the end of the year.

Analyst Trip Chowdry said: “There will not be any third spot left. Nokia, Microsoft and RIM will struggle in the remaining 2 per cent of the market.”

This prediction also follows Apples announcement of 400 million iOS devices sold. “What that means for a developer is that they have 400 million people waiting to buy,” Chowdry continued. “That’s a critical asset that Apple has. If you go to the Windows market, they don’t have 400 million devices or credit card numbers.”

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