A massive 65.5 percent the people surveyed by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster say they are planning to buy an iPhone as their next phone, and of those, more than half (51 percent) say they will be buying the iPhone 5, just as soon as Apple launches it. That’s a third of the people surveyed.
Of those who already own an iPhone, 94.2 percent plan to stick with Apple when they buy their next phone. Another 2.9 percent are undecided. Munster says this data suggest that as many as 80 million iPhone 5 sales are already “in the bag.”
He wrote: “We believe this suggests that as much as 50 percent of our estimated iPhone units for FY13 are in the bag (~170 million iPhone users x 94 percent re-buy x percent iPhone 5 planned purchase),” according to Business Insider.
Munster calculates approximately 170 million iPhone users. We calculated a slightly larger number based on Apple announcing last March that it had sold 100 million iPhones, and then adding the quarterly sales since, to get to the figure of 228 million iPhones. Of course, we note that not every phone ever sold will be upgraded to an iPhone 5, however, many have already been consigned to the top drawer, so Munster’s figure is likely closer to the number of iPhones in use.
The respondents were also shown mock-ups of the iPhone with a bigger screen, but the majority preferred the smaller screen, suggesting that Apple may be misguided if it enlarges the screen. Then again, people may just have picked the most familiar looking device.
Despite all the claims that Android is winning market share from Apple, Munster’s research found that only 19 percent planned to by an Android as their next phone. Android owners are less loyal to the brand than Apple iPhone users. According to the research there is an Android re-buy rate of 60 percent (although that is up from 47% last year, according to Fortune’s report).
There were 400 respondents in the poll, of which 52% currently own an iPhone, 26% have an Android, and 6.5% own a Blackberry.
Using the data, Fortune concludes that when Apple launches the iPhone 5 it can expect to make 80 million sales. Presumably this is based on Apple having sold more than 200 million iPhones to date. (Apple announced it had sold 100 million iPhones by March 2011, since then the company has sold another 128,166,000 according to their figures.)