[Some Random Bloke]

When it comes to technology I'm 100% Apple - our home has an iMac, Macbook, 2 iPhones, an Apple TV and at least 3 iPods (including a touch). We download more iTunes movies than we buy on DVD, and I don't know when I last bought a CD, it's all iTunes.

But Apple fanboys need to wake up and smell the coffee. Whatever else you want to say about the competition, the iPhone, as good as it is, is not leader of the pack, according to the Australian.

Windows Phone 7 based smart phones have sold 1.5 million units in the first 6 weeks. At that rate it will surpass Apple in terms of smartphone sales in a year or two.

Quote

Finland's Nokia still leads the worldwide market, with 29.5 million smartphones sold during the third quarter of the year for a 36.6 per cent share, down from 44.6 per cent a year ago, according to Gartner.

Sales of Android-powered smartphones meanwhile soared to 20.5 million units, giving the Android platform a 25.5 per cent market share, up from just 3.5 per cent a year ago, Gartner said.

Apple's iPhone came in third on Gartner's list, with sales of 13.5 million units for a 16.7 per cent market share, down from 17.1 per cent a year ago.

Canada's Research In Motion, maker of the BlackBerry, was in fourth position with sales of 11.9 million units. Its market share dropped to 14.8 per cent from 20.7 per cent a year ago.

Microsoft's Windows Mobile saw sales of 2.2 million units, giving it a 2.8 per cent market share, down from 7.9 per cent a year ago, Gartner said.

Now, Apple is still selling lots of phones and there's actually no problem here - everyone has healthy sales. This isn't a good/bad dichotomy or winner takes all. Actually, I think iOS, Android and WP7 are all excellent platforms. But I predict in a few years platform market share will be 1. Android, 2. Windows and 3. Apple. Of course in regard to hardware it could be reversed, but in regard to platform iOS is no longer the clear leader, either in features or innovation. It's one of a number of very good mobile OSes on expensive (albeit probably the highest quality of the bunch) hardware. But the Apple way has always been lower volumes and high margins.

Love my iPhone. Not going any where. Just saying.

[Xavier Verhoeven]

Yeah, it's interesting to see WP7 selling well. I haven't played with one yet, but I won't be leaving the iPhone world any time soon. And so long as Apple keeps making new models that do what I need, it doesn't make a difference what its market share is.

[petert]

The numbers about the sales of WP7 phones are not as obvious as they should be. Here are some things to think about.

First, the sales refer to phones sold to retailers and wholesalers, not phones sold to consumers etc. There is no indication of how many of 1.5m phones are still sitting on shelves.

Second, MS bought 90,000 phones and another company bought 30,000. That is almost 10% of the 1.5m phones allegedly "sold".

Third, many companies in the USA are selling WP7 phones as a 2-for-1 sale. There is no indication in the numbers are to how many of the 1.5m "sold" (or 750,000 sold) were actually free giveaways in those sales.

Fourth, the fact that phone companies seemingly need to have 2-for-1 sales after such a short time is itself potentially telling and of itself may indicate that WP7 phones are not selling as well as MS might like to imply.

Fifth, Apple makes a profit from the sale of both iPhones and iOS ie the hardware and the sofware. There are something like 30 different WP7 devices spread across a number of manufacturers. If "only" 1.5 m have been sold, then MS might have made some money from the software but you have to wonder how much money the phone manufacturers have been able to make from sales of various WP7 phones.

[mickdevlin]

petert, on 22 December 2010 - 11:44 AM, said:

First, the sales refer to phones sold to retailers and wholesalers, not phones sold to consumers etc. There is no indication of how many of 1.5m phones are still sitting on shelves.

Agree with your comments as that is a common Microsoft trick. They did the same thing with the Zune (anyone even remember them?) An additional pointer to the actual sales figures is that Microsoft are withholding app sales figures from developers. The figures won't apparently be released until February, but some developers aren't optimistic that MS will actually release them then.

Further details on the state of sales can be found here.

EDIT (and executive summary): 1.5 million units shipped ≠ 1.5 million units sold

[Ken Gracey]

Isnt this a bit like the early 80s all over again, apple were the no 1 selling computer, until Microsoft released win 95, and then you had dozens of companies making hardware and running windows on it, I think Alex is spot on the money with what he is saying, apple will end up with 5 or 6% of the market and google and Microsoft will dominate the rest.




TL

[klytia]

mickdevlin, on 22 December 2010 - 08:40 PM, said:

Further details on the state of sales can be found here.

That was an interesting read Mick, thanks for the link......

Mick

[petert]

Thankyou Mick, that really is an interesting article to read!

Of additional interest, I've seen a report that Samsung Bada sold 1 million devices in the first four weeks. It did so without a $500 million advertising program of the like of MS for WP7. I am not saying that WP7 is a failure, but, whichever way you look at it, WP7 can hardly be seen to be a success.

[Some Random Bloke]

Interesting article Mick. Oh well, we'll see what happens. I still like the look of WP7, seems to sit between iOS and Android. Should also say, that even with a small market share, Apple knows how to make money, so really no worries about the future viability of the platform.

But like I say, for me it's all hypothetical, I'm well and truly embedded in the Apple ecosystem until they do something really stupid.

[mickdevlin]

This time next year I expect that the market share will be Android (huge range but none outstanding), iOS (great quality and enormous range of apps), then everyone else.

[Mychael]

I just got through reading the 40 something pages in the whirlpool forums about user experiences of useing Android.
My phone contract expires end of yr and although I am generally quite happy with my 3GS (first smartphone experience) I was tempted by the Samsung Galaxy S2 for it's larger screen.

My conclusions after reading all the posts is that Android phones are best suited to those that like to tinker or jailbreak/customise and ios is best for those that like things to 'just work'.
It's given me a bit of pause as although I've no doubt I could put in the work to get an Android phone fully set up, to me a phone is something you need to have working pretty much right from day one and I just have not the time nor patience to muck about with a thing I see as a tool as opposed to a lifestyle item.

I've not investigated the windows phone platform yet.

So my thoughts fwiw is that ios in smartphones is pretty secure, especially for first time users and those that need immediate functionality as opposed to tuneabilty in their devices.

Android phones get market share helped by the fact that generally speaking their price entry point is lower then an Apple product.

I do just wish for a bigger screen though.

[Ken Gracey]

I to, have considered an adroid phone, but as far as updates etc for the operating system on them, I really don't understand how it works, I mean with the iPhone you plug it in, and bingo. But with so many vendors, all changing the system in some way, so they stay separate from there competitors, is a lot more confusing